PHY-01 The Arctic Ocean: Physics, climate & ecosystem
CMIP6 prediction of the long-term changes of the Beaufort Gyre
Hantao Yang* , College of Oceanography, Hohai university
Xuezhi Bai, College of Oceanography, Hohai university

As one of the most important large-scale circulations in the Arctic Ocean, the Beaufort Gyre(BG) will not only affect the upper ocean circulation structure of the Arctic Ocean but also affect the distribution and output of fresh water. By exploring the long-term change trend of the BG under different scenarios (SSP-2.6, SSP5-8.5) of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we found that the MME results of the CMIP6 model show that the intensity of the BG will gradually weaken under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, while it will continue to strengthen under the SSP1-2.6 scenario. This is due to the greenhouse effect caused by high carbon dioxide emissions. The temperature difference between the atmospheres continues to shrink, reducing sea-level pressure and weakening the Beaufort High. This result can be supported by the deviation of sea surface height under different scenarios, and the long-term trend of sea surface velocity in the eddy region is also consistent with this result. At the same time, this paper also explores the uncertainty between different models. Due to differences in the resolution of each model and the associated physical process description and its parameterization scheme design, the simulation results vary between models, with individual models showing opposite results.